Graphic: Path to the Presidency
- 50.4 — Percentage of voters favouring Democrat Barack Obama
- 43.6 — Percentage of voters favouring Republican John McCain
Although the Real Clear Politics poll of polls has narrowed slightly from a week ago, it still looks grave for McCain. Many commenters believe he is almost out of the race.
"McCain has to pull off a political miracle the likes of which has not occurred since modern political polling began," says Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll
"There are significantly more ways for Obama to win that McCain. It's certainly an uphill climb," says Todd Harris, Republican consultant.
Obama and McCain will win New Hampshire
Quiet word at Saturday debate in NH: Chip Somodevilla/ Getty Image
A victory by these two will be the best possible, and most resonant, outcome: Both are mavericks, both are anti-politics politicians and both are outsiders with principles.
Here's what is happening:Obama, likely victorious in New Hampshire Tuesday, will then become unstoppable because he will go on to win Michigan, then South Carolina (half African-American) and most of the big populous states on super Tuesday Feb. 3.
McCain, on the other hand, can go on to win Michigan, if he gets New Hampshire, but faces an uphill battle in South Carolina where he lost his last presidential bid in 2000 to the born-agains. South Carolinians are likely to vote for Huckabee this time.
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