Obama and McCain will win New Hampshire
Quiet word at Saturday debate in NH: Chip Somodevilla/ Getty Image
A victory by these two will be the best possible, and most resonant, outcome: Both are mavericks, both are anti-politics politicians and both are outsiders with principles.
Here's what is happening:
Obama, likely victorious in New Hampshire Tuesday, will then become unstoppable because he will go on to win Michigan, then South Carolina (half African-American) and most of the big populous states on super Tuesday Feb. 3.
McCain, on the other hand, can go on to win Michigan, if he gets New Hampshire, but faces an uphill battle in South Carolina where he lost his last presidential bid in 2000 to the born-agains. South Carolinians are likely to vote for Huckabee this time.
The Republican shakeout
McCain is the only choice who is not a Bush "lite" candidate. He is his own man, has disagreed or agreed with past policies, and had the courage to try and do something about America's biggest problem: campaign finance reform. His legislation was watered down but was an important, and notably bi-partisan, initial attack.
What's interesting to note, post-Iowa, is that all the Republicans smell Romney blood and are starting to gang up on him. He is a staged, moneyed candidate-caricature who ascribes to the old paradigm that if you look good, have enough money and 
aggregate enough policies, that people agree with, you will become the winner. That's no longer working. People are not cherry-picking based on the war, gay marriage, abortion, healthcare, the environment or taxes.
Even Republican voters realize the Bushies have made a cock-up of everything and the pendulum has swung. This is turning into a rejection of the status quo from the way in which the "War" against terror is being waged to healthcare.
Giuliani, who might as well not even have entered Iowa as he did so poorly, thinks his only shot is to come up the middle in a badly divided Republican party with McCain on one hand and Huckabee on the other. But he's wrong.
Giuliani is the 9/11 candidate and a Bush apologist. He is, therefore, a reminder of how out of control, costly and inept the Bush regime's reaction to that terrorist attack has been.
Thompson is another who is counting on party polarization to come up the middle and restore Law and Order to the Republicans. He has campaigned lightly thus far and, as such, is an electoral vulture.
McCain's problem is his sharp tongue and this may hurt him if he ends up using it against a respectful, eloquent Obama.
But his latest outburst, attacking big media types, is a winning proposition. If there's anything Republicans hate more than big government it's big "liberal" media.
The Democrat shakeout
Edwards also smells Hillary's defeat, or rather Bill's, and began attacking Hillary, not Obama, during the weekend debates. He is clearly positioning himself as number two, and is auditioning to be in Obama's camp, as a trusted colleague or even as a vice presidential running mate.
Meanwhile, Hillary and Bill are finally being dealt with by voters. The electorate never had a chance to crush him in the polls after his disgraceful behavior and fibbing over Monica Lewinsky. So now they are.
Besides that, everybody knows that Hillary is only there because she is still married to Bill, and his organization. Most people are too polite to say that aloud but are voting that way.
Why Obama? His appeal is unassailable: The promise of change and hope for more acceptable alternatives wrapped in an American flag.
This means to attack him is to attack change, to attack hope and to reject examination of more acceptable alternatives to the problems that face the country and world.
- 50.4 — Percentage of voters favouring Democrat Barack Obama
- 43.6 — Percentage of voters favouring Republican John McCain
Although the Real Clear Politics poll of polls has narrowed slightly from a week ago, it still looks grave for McCain. Many commenters believe he is almost out of the race.
"McCain has to pull off a political miracle the likes of which has not occurred since modern political polling began," says Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll
"There are significantly more ways for Obama to win that McCain. It's certainly an uphill climb," says Todd Harris, Republican consultant.
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